京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.10.017

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 119-125.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.10.017

京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险评估

蒋琴¹, 钟少波² 副研究员, 朱伟^**2 研究员

1 首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048;
2 北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京 100035

收稿日期:2020-07-28 修回日期:2020-09-10 出版日期:2020-10-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
通讯作者: **朱伟(1978—),男,江西南昌人,博士,研究员,主要从事城市公共安全与风险评估的研究。E-mail:zhuweianquan@126.com。
作者简介:蒋琴 (1993—),女,四川宜宾人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为城市安全感知。 E-mail:1165828874@qq.com。
基金资助:
北京市科技计划课题(Z191100001419002)。

Research on comprehensive risk assessment of forest fire in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

JIANG Qin¹, ZHONG Shaobo², ZHU Wei²

1 College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China;
2 Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, Beijing 100035, China

Received:2020-07-28 Revised:2020-09-10 Online:2020-10-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为完善京津冀地区的森林火灾风险管理体系,基于公共安全三角形理论,利用遥感和地理信息系统(GIS)手段获取和处理3类共14项指标数据;使用熵权法为指标确定权重,结合GIS计算分析京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险;通过与历史火灾数据对比,验证所提出的综合风险评估方法和评估结果的合理性。结果表明:危险性的主要影响因素是居民点密度,目标敏感度的主要影响因素是植被覆盖率,目标暴露性的主要影响因素是人均国内生产总值(GDP),救援能力的主要影响因素是消防力量建设;从2005—2015年,京津冀地区整体的森林火灾综合风险在降低。

关键词: 京津冀, 森林火灾, 综合风险评估, 公共安全三角形, 熵权法

Abstract: In order to improve risk management of forest fire in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, based on public safety triangle theory, a total of 14 indicators in three categories were obtained and processed through Remote Sensing and Geography Information System (GIS). Then, their weights were determined by entropy weighting method, and comprehensive forest fire risk of the region was calculated and analyzed by utilizing GIS. Finally, this evaluation method was verified by comparing assessment results with historical fire data. The results show that major influencing factor for hazard is density of residential areas, that is vegetation coverage for target sensitivity, per capita GDP for target exposedness and fire force development for rescue capability. It is also found that comprehensive risk of forest fire has been decreasing from 2005 to 2015 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Key words: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, forest fire, comprehensive risk assessment, public safety triangle, entropy weighting method

中图分类号:

X928.7

蒋琴, 钟少波副, 朱伟. 京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(10): 119-125.

JIANG Qin, ZHONG Shaobo, ZHU Wei. Research on comprehensive risk assessment of forest fire in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(10): 119-125.

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京津冀地区森林火灾综合风险评估

Research on comprehensive risk assessment of forest fire in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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